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Thursday, Jun 04th

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COVID-19 Observations

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When you review the chart developed with data from “worldometers.info/coronavirus/” first remember this chart is dated as of:  April 29, 2020 at 12 noon.  It is interesting when you look at the data, you will note:

[1] Worldwide there 3,174,134 cases with 220,446 deaths for a death rate of 6.9% which means 93.1% live. Also, if you look at the total world population of 7,773,595,500 people and calculate the death rate based on the world population it is far less than 1% at 0.0028%. So, comparing this to other well-known past pandemics - Spanish Flu from 1918 - 1919 had a death rate worldwide of 2.8% and if you calculate the death rate base on number of cases it was 9 to 11%. For Swine Flu the low estimate on worldwide death rate was 0.0022% and the high estimate was 0.0083%.. Looking at the “Plague” which mainly affected Europe in 1347 - 1351, estimates are 30% of the population died and high estimates are 50% died.

[2] In the United States there are 1,040,925 cases with 59,851 deaths for a death rate of 5.7% which means 94.3% live. Also, if you look at the total US population of 331,002,285 and calculate the death rate based on the U.S. population, it is less than 1% at 0.31%. So, comparing this to other well-known past pandemics - Spanish Flu from 1918 - 1919 had a death rate based on population of 0.65% and if you calculate the death rate based on number of cases it was 2.5 to 2.8%. For Swine Flu the death rate based on total population was 0.004% and the death rate based on number of cases was less than 1% at 0.021%.

[3] If you want to migrate to a safer country, try Yemen with 1 case and no deaths or Papua, New Guinea with 8 cases and no deaths.

[4] In the United States the most cases by far are in New York [mainly the City] with 305,086 cases and 23,474 deaths. California is number 5 with 46,506 cases and 1,873 deaths. Our neighbor to the west, Arizona is #23 with 7,202 cases and 304 deaths. Utah is #33 with 4,343 cases and 45 deaths. New Mexico is #39 with 2,974 cases and 110 deaths. The safer states are Alaska [9 deaths] and Wyoming [7 deaths].

I hope this helps you to deal with the COVID-19 situation. I always like to keep things in perspective so I don’t go into a panic. I know this is a tough situation, but it will pass.

By Richard F. Kontz
Guest Columnist